je.st
news
Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-08-25 10:34:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 250833 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Marie has an impressive concentric eyewall structure in recent microwave images. The inner eyewall surrounds the 15 n mi diameter circular eye, and the outer one extends about 40 to 50 n mi from the center. In addition, a large curved band exists beyond the inner core and wraps across the southern portion of the circulation. The initial wind speed is set at 125 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. A pair of ASCAT passes around 0500 UTC confirmed the large wind field of Marie, with tropical storm force winds extending over 250 n mi away from the center. Intensity fluctuations are likely today due to the ongoing eyewall replacement cycle. As mentioned in previous discussions, these internal dynamics are not predictable in terms of timing or how many occur. Regardless, Marie is expected to be a major hurricane for at least another 24 hours while it remains in an air mass of low shear and high moisture, and over 28-29 degrees Celsius water. After that time, however, Marie will be moving over much colder water and into a more stable atmosphere. These conditions should promote a steady or even rapid weakening. The NHC intensity forecast is mainly an update of the previous one and lies near the middle of the guidance envelope. After the eye of the hurricane was wobbling around for much of the day yesterday, the cyclone seems to be on a smoother northwestward track now. The initial motion estimate is 300/10. A continued northwestward motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next 3 to 4 days while Marie remains steered by ridging to the north of the cyclone. A turn to the north-northwest is predicted by the end of the forecast period when the weakening system begins to move around the western periphery of the ridge. No significant changes were made to the previous advisory, and the current track forecast lies close to the multi-model consensus, TVCE. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 17.3N 113.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 18.3N 115.4W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 19.6N 117.4W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 20.9N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 22.0N 121.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 24.7N 126.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 27.8N 130.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/0600Z 30.2N 132.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
Tags: number
discussion
marie
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||