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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 16
2014-08-25 22:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 252034 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT MON AUG 25 2014 Visible and microwave satellite images indicate that Marie still has concentric eyewalls, which are surrounded by another larger and almost closed ring of deep convection. Convective cloud tops have continued to gradually warm and become more asymmetric during the past few hours. As a result, Dvorak estimates have dropped, and the initial intensity is lowered to 115 kt based on a consensus of CI numbers from TAFB, SAB, and the ADT. A steady decrease in the winds is forecast to continue in the short term, but the weakening rate should quicken after Marie moves over sub-26C waters in about 24 hours. As a result, the hurricane is now expected to weaken to a tropical storm in about 48 hours and become post-tropical by 96 hours. Marie will be over SSTs around 22 deg C in about 72 hours, so it is possible that it could become post-tropical sooner than indicated in the official forecast. The weakening trend shown in the current NHC forecast is a little faster than the previous one and is in line with the SHIPS and LGEM models through 48 hours. Forecast intensities at the end of the period are based more on the global models, which should have a better handle on the system during its post-tropical phase. The initial motion remains 305/11 kt. Mid-level ridging will continue to steer Marie northwestward or west-northwestward through day 4. Once it becomes a remnant low on day 5, Marie is likely to turn northward and slow down. The track guidance has not changed on this forecast cycle, and the updated NHC track forecast is basically an update of the previous one. Although Marie is expected to remain well offshore, very large swells will continue to affect southwestern Mexico through tonight and much of the Pacific coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next few days. Southerly swells will also reach the coast of southern California by Tuesday, producing life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 18.4N 115.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 12H 26/0600Z 19.4N 117.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 26/1800Z 20.6N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 27/0600Z 21.7N 121.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 27/1800Z 22.7N 124.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 29/1800Z 29.0N 132.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 30/1800Z 31.0N 132.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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