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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 19
2014-08-26 16:36:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 261436 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT TUE AUG 26 2014 Microwave data show that Marie continues to have a complicated inner core structure, with an remnant inner eyewall surrounded by a pair of larger concentric eyewall rings. Dvorak estimates are still falling, so the initial intensity is lowered to 85 kt. Steady-to-rapid weakening of Marie is expected with the cyclone now crossing the 26.5C isotherm into much colder waters. The intensity forecast is a blend of the previous NHC prediction, the intensity consensus and the Florida State Superensemble. Marie should become a non-convective post-tropical cyclone in about 2 days when it moves over waters colder than 23C, although there will likely still be gale-force winds for some time after the transition. The initial motion is 300/13 kt. Model guidance is in excellent agreement on a west-northwestward to northwestward motion during the next few days while the system remains steered by mid-level ridging to its northeast. Marie should slow and turn toward the north-northwest by day 4 due to it reaching the western periphery of the ridge. The remnants of the cyclone are then expected to drift westward after that time within an area of light steering. Only a small southwestward adjustment has been made to the official forecast at long range to come into better agreement with the consensus models. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula, and will soon reach the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for a couple of days, and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/1500Z 20.7N 119.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 27/0000Z 21.6N 120.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 27/1200Z 22.6N 123.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 36H 28/0000Z 23.7N 125.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 28/1200Z 25.1N 128.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 29/1200Z 28.1N 131.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 30/1200Z 30.5N 133.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 31/1200Z 30.5N 133.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Blake
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