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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-08-27 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 270834 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 AM PDT WED AUG 27 2014 Marie continues to slowly weaken. Although deep convection in the eyewall has changed little during the past few hours, cloud tops have warmed outside of the inner core region. In addition, a dry slot is now evident to the north of the center. The initial intensity is lowered a little to 75 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak classifications. The hurricane is currently over 25 C water and it will be moving over even cooler water during the next few days. These unfavorable oceanic conditions combined with a more stable air mass should cause the weakening trend to continue. Marie is expected to lose all of its deep convection in 36 to 48 hours when it is forecast to be over sea surface temperatures around 22 C. Satellite fixes suggest that Marie has moved a little to the left of the previous forecast track. The initial motion estimate is 285/11. A turn to the northwest and then north-northwest is expected during the next few days while the weakening system moves around a strong mid-level high builds off the coast of the northern Baja California. Beyond a few days, the shallow system is expected to slow down and turn westward or southwestward in the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast has been nudged southward, mainly to account for the initial motion and position. Very large southerly swells continue to affect much of the Baja California peninsula and the southern California coast. These swells are expected to persist for another day or so and could produce life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal flooding around the time of high tide. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0900Z 21.7N 122.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1800Z 22.5N 124.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 28/0600Z 23.8N 127.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 28/1800Z 25.5N 129.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 29/0600Z 27.0N 130.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 30/0600Z 29.5N 132.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 31/0600Z 29.8N 134.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 01/0600Z 29.2N 135.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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