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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 7
2014-08-23 16:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 231446 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie has been rapidly intensifying with a 30-kt increase since yesterday at this time. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane, though an eye has yet to make an appearance. Dvorak CI numbers are increasing, and a blend of the ADT, SAB, and TAFB values indicate an intensity of 75 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. The GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 10-15 kt of deep-layer shear currently and gradually increasing over next three days. However, the CIMSS shear analysis suggests substantially less shear now, which is more consistent with the symmetric appearance to the convection and the observed rapid intensification. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 36 hours onward. Unfortunately, no new size information has been available and the wind radii analysis and prediction remain about the same. The initial position is somewhat uncertain, due to no microwave passes recently and no eye being seen yet. However, the available fixes suggest a somewhat farther northward position than earlier analyzed. The current motion is west-northwest at 9 kt, slightly slower than previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast time. The track guidance is in very close agreement all the way to five days and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction is just slightly northward of the previous advisory because of the initial shift in position, but is otherwise quite close in longitude. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/1500Z 14.6N 106.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 24/0000Z 15.2N 107.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1200Z 15.9N 110.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0000Z 16.5N 111.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/1200Z 17.3N 113.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 72H 26/1200Z 19.7N 117.0W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 27/1200Z 22.0N 121.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 28/1200Z 25.0N 126.0W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
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