je.st
news
Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 8
2014-08-23 22:46:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 232046 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon. Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an appearance in the visible imagery. Dvorak CI numbers from ADT, SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of deep-layer shear now and for the next three days. The forecast intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. It is of note that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward. TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at 10 kt, about the same as previously. Marie is primarily being steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast period. The track guidance remains in very close agreement through day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast track. The official track prediction at days four and five is shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique. It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about four days. While this process will lead to the dissipation of Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Landsea
Tags: number
discussion
marie
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||