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Hurricane MARIE Forecast Discussion Number 9
2014-08-24 04:48:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 240248 TCDEP3 HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014 800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014 Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie. A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that time. Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12, with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion. While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement. Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH 72H 27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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