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Hurricane MATTHEW Wind Speed Probabilities Number 38
2016-10-07 16:56:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 071456 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MATTHEW WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 38 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016 1500 UTC FRI OCT 07 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MATTHEW WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 80.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DANVILLE VA 34 X 4( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) 3(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK VA 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 5(11) 3(14) X(14) X(14) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 5(12) 3(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 2( 2) 10(12) 7(19) 4(23) X(23) X(23) GREENSBORO NC 34 1 5( 6) 3( 9) 2(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) RALEIGH NC 34 1 6( 7) 10(17) 2(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 6( 6) 12(18) 5(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 18(39) 8(47) X(47) X(47) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) FAYETTEVILLE 34 2 20(22) 24(46) 4(50) 1(51) X(51) X(51) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 2 7( 9) 4(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) CHERRY PT NC 34 1 9(10) 33(43) 14(57) 4(61) X(61) X(61) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 9( 9) 7(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 34 X 8( 8) 34(42) 18(60) 5(65) X(65) X(65) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 10(10) 10(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MOREHEAD CITY 34 1 10(11) 34(45) 18(63) 4(67) X(67) X(67) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 11(11) 10(21) 3(24) X(24) X(24) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SURF CITY NC 34 2 23(25) 38(63) 9(72) 3(75) X(75) X(75) SURF CITY NC 50 X 1( 1) 21(22) 9(31) 1(32) X(32) X(32) SURF CITY NC 64 X X( X) 6( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WILMINGTON NC 34 3 32(35) 35(70) 7(77) 1(78) X(78) X(78) WILMINGTON NC 50 X 2( 2) 25(27) 6(33) 1(34) X(34) X(34) WILMINGTON NC 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) BALD HEAD ISL 34 4 44(48) 31(79) 4(83) 1(84) X(84) X(84) BALD HEAD ISL 50 X 5( 5) 38(43) 5(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) BALD HEAD ISL 64 X 1( 1) 18(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) FLORENCE SC 34 5 55(60) 14(74) 1(75) 1(76) X(76) X(76) FLORENCE SC 50 X 7( 7) 7(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) COLUMBIA SC 34 5 43(48) 6(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) LITTLE RIVER 34 5 58(63) 21(84) 2(86) 1(87) X(87) X(87) LITTLE RIVER 50 X 11(11) 34(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) LITTLE RIVER 64 X 2( 2) 15(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) MYRTLE BEACH 34 7 65(72) 16(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) MYRTLE BEACH 50 X 18(18) 34(52) 1(53) 1(54) X(54) X(54) MYRTLE BEACH 64 X 4( 4) 19(23) 1(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) GEORGETOWN SC 34 21 64(85) 7(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GEORGETOWN SC 50 1 37(38) 23(61) 2(63) X(63) X(63) X(63) GEORGETOWN SC 64 X 13(13) 21(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) CHARLESTON SC 34 58 36(94) 2(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) CHARLESTON SC 50 3 63(66) 8(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) CHARLESTON SC 64 X 38(38) 7(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 78 20(98) X(98) X(98) 1(99) X(99) X(99) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 8 64(72) 2(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) X(74) BEAUFORT MCAS 64 2 42(44) 1(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) X(45) ATLANTA GA 34 2 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA GA 34 8 29(37) 4(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) AUGUSTA GA 50 1 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAVANNAH GA 34 86 12(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAVANNAH GA 50 19 47(66) 2(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) SAVANNAH GA 64 4 30(34) 1(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) KINGS BAY GA 34 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) KINGS BAY GA 50 71 4(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) KINGS BAY GA 64 33 4(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) WAYCROSS GA 34 66 5(71) 1(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) X(72) WAYCROSS GA 50 6 3( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WAYCROSS GA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MAYPORT NS FL 50 83 1(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) MAYPORT NS FL 64 46 2(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) JACKSONVILLE 34 97 X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) JACKSONVILLE 50 56 1(57) 1(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) JACKSONVILLE 64 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) GAINESVILLE FL 34 33 2(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) GAINESVILLE FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 64 32 X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) THE VILLAGES 34 22 2(24) 1(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) 1(26) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT PIERCE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) W PALM BEACH 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) FT LAUDERDALE 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) MIAMI FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 2( 4) NAPLES FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) FT MYERS FL 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) TAMPA FL 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CEDAR KEY FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) APALACHICOLA 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) COLUMBUS GA 34 2 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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