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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 26
2017-09-22 16:36:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 221436 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 26 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 Even though Maria's eye has become cloud filled since the previous advisory, reconnaissance data indicate that the hurricane has not weakened. The highest flight-level wind measured by the plane was 121 kt, accompanied by SFMR winds as high as 109 kt, so the initial intensity will remain 110 kt. Microwave data and reports from the plane indicate that the eye has opened up on the southwest/west side, which is likely an indicator of increasing southwesterly shear. This shear is expected to persist for at least the next 36 hours, but Maria will be moving over 28-29 degree Celsius water during that time. Therefore, only a very gradual reduction in wind speed is expected for the next 2 days. After that time, Maria will begin to move over a cold pool left behind by Jose, where sea surface temperatures are 26 degrees Celsius or colder. Additional weakening is therefore anticipated on days 3 through 5, and the NHC intensity forecast is a little lower than SHIPS, LGEM, and the intensity consensus to account for the possible effect of the colder waters. Maria continues to move northwestward, or 325/7 kt, around the southwestern periphery of a mid-level high centered south of Bermuda. The hurricane should turn north-northwestward later today and then northward in 24-36 hours when it begins to move between the high and an elongated trough extending southwest of Jose. Although a general northward motion is expected through the end of the forecast period, some notable speed differences develop among the track models from day 3 and beyond. The ECMWF and UKMET are the main outliers, lying on the western side of the guidance envelope. To account for those possible solutions, the NHC track forecast leans a little left of the TVCN multi-model consensus toward the end of the forecast period. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Flash flooding continues in portions of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic due to persistent heavy rainfall from Maria's trailing rainbands. Continue to follow advice from local officials to avoid these life-threatening flooding conditions. 2. Swells from Maria are beginning to reach the coast of the southeastern United States and will last for several days. These swells are likely to cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents along the coast for the next several days, even with Maria forecast to remain well offshore over the western Atlantic Ocean. 3. Maria will be closer to the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 22.3N 71.0W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 23.5N 71.5W 105 KT 120 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 25.0N 72.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 26.5N 72.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 27.9N 72.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 25/1200Z 30.0N 71.6W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 26/1200Z 32.0N 71.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 27/1200Z 34.0N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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