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Hurricane Maria Forecast Discussion Number 28
2017-09-23 04:36:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 230236 TCDAT5 Hurricane Maria Discussion Number 28 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 PM EDT Fri Sep 22 2017 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter plane and the Coyote unmanned aerial vehicle launched from the NOAA plane have sampled the eye and the surroundings of Maria early this evening. An Air Force plane also arrived and so far has penetrated the eye a couple of times. Based on the data from these platforms, the maximum winds are still 110 kt in the eyewall that surrounds a large eye of about 35 n mi in diameter. There are no reports of a double wind max at this time so no eyewall replacement cycle is anticipated soon. The current shear is forecast to decrease, but the hurricane is moving toward a region with less oceanic heat content. The combination of these two factors should result in a very gradual decay of the hurricane, and the NHC forecast keeps Maria as a category 3 at least for one or two more days. Satellite and plane fixes indicate that Maria is moving toward the north-northwest or 345 degrees at 8 kt, steered by a subtropical ridge to the east of the hurricane. The ridge is forecast to amplify westward during the next few days, but it is not expected to be strong enough to block the northward motion of the hurricane. It will however, force the hurricane to move slowly. Tonight's guidance continues to be in very good agreement for the next 3 days, and the NHC forecast is in the middle of the tight envelope. After that time, the GFS and EMWF are once again in competition, with the GFS defining the western edge of the guidance envelope and the ECMWF the eastern one. This makes the forecast a little more uncertain. The NHC forecast recurves Maria over the open Atlantic which is the solution of the HFIP corrected consensus and the multi-model consensus. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Swells from Maria are expected to increase along the coast of the southeastern United States and will likely cause dangerous surf and life-threatening rip currents for the next several days. 3. Maria will move between the east coast of the United States and Bermuda by the middle of next week, but it is too soon to determine what, if any, direct impacts there might be in these areas. 4. For more information on the flooding and rip current hazards in the United States, please monitor information from your local National Weather Service forecast office at www.weather.gov. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 24.1N 71.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 25.3N 72.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 27.0N 72.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 24/1200Z 28.5N 72.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 25/0000Z 29.7N 72.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 26/0000Z 31.7N 72.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 96H 27/0000Z 33.5N 72.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 28/0000Z 35.5N 71.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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