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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 10
2020-10-01 16:37:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 011437 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie has continued to become better organized this morning. An AMSR image from just after 09Z showed a closed mid-level eyewall, and conventional satellite imagery shows an increasingly symmetric cloud pattern with very cold cloud tops, colder than -80C, around the center. The current intensity estimate is set at 90 kt in agreement with Dvorak classifications from both TAFB and SAB. Marie is moving over SSTs warmer than 28 deg C and in a moist, low-shear atmospheric environment. The SHIPS guidance still shows a significant probability of rapid intensification through tonight, so Marie is likely to become a major hurricane quite soon. The official forecast is a little above the latest corrected model consensus. In a couple of days, the hurricane should be crossing the SST gradient and encountering cooler waters, so a weakening trend is anticipated to be underway within 48 hours. The estimated initial motion is west-northwestward, or 285/15 kt. For the next couple of days, Marie should continue to move along the southern periphery of a mid-tropospheric ridge associated with a high pressure system centered over California. A slight turn to the right with some deceleration is expected during the forecast period due to a weakness in the ridge near 130W longitude. By the end of the period, Marie is likely to turn toward the northwest while it moves through this weakness. The official track forecast lies very close to the latest multi-model consensus, TVCE, prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/1500Z 15.2N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/0000Z 15.9N 121.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 02/1200Z 16.8N 124.1W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0000Z 17.8N 126.2W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 03/1200Z 18.8N 127.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 04/0000Z 19.6N 129.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 04/1200Z 20.4N 130.7W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 05/1200Z 21.7N 133.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 06/1200Z 23.8N 136.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
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