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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 11
2020-10-01 22:43:16| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 012043 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 An eye has formed in visible and infrared satellite imagery since the issuance of the previous advisory, and the surrounding convection continues to have cold cloud tops (as cold as -83C). The width of the coldest tops were a little thin on the southwest side at 1800 UTC, and because of this, subjective and objective intensity estimates were still 90 kt. Since that time, the eye has become more distinct and the convection is becoming more symmetric around the eye, and the initial intensity is therefore set at 95 kt. Marie's initial position has been adjusted to the south just a bit now that the center is more apparent with the eye formation. This yields a current westward motion of 280/14 kt. The atmospheric features responsible for steering Marie during the forecast period will be a mid-tropospheric ridge centered over the southwestern United States and a mid- to upper-level low located to the west over the Pacific. The interplay between these features is likely to cause some wiggles in Marie's future track, but for the most part the hurricane will be moving west-northwestward or northwestward through day 5. The spread in the guidance increases toward the end of the forecast period, with the GFS turning more northward and the ECMWF maintaining a west-northwestward motion. The other deterministic models are in between these two solutions, clustered very close to the various multi-model consensus aids, and that is where the NHC forecast also lies for this advisory. The environment appears conducive for this phase of rapid intensification to continue, at least for the next 24 hours. Deep-layer shear is just about to decrease to 10 kt or less, and Marie will remain over waters of high ocean heat content for the next 24-36 hours. The intensity guidance decreased a bit on this cycle, which seems odd given the ongoing intensification trend and the favorable environmental conditions. The SHIPS model does still show that the chance for rapid intensification to continue is 3 to 5 times higher than the climatological mean, and therefore the NHC intensity forecast maintains continuity from the previous advisory, showing a peak intensity of 120 kt. This forecast is above the highest intensity models by about 10-15 kt. Weakening is still anticipated, particularly after 48 hours, due to Marie moving over cooler waters and being affected by increasing southwesterly shear. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 15.1N 120.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 12H 02/0600Z 15.8N 122.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 02/1800Z 16.7N 125.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 36H 03/0600Z 17.8N 126.8W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 03/1800Z 18.8N 128.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 04/0600Z 19.7N 129.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 04/1800Z 20.3N 130.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 05/1800Z 21.4N 133.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 06/1800Z 23.0N 136.3W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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