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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 12
2020-10-02 04:35:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 020234 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Thu Oct 01 2020 Marie is still strengthening this evening. Satellite images indicate that the hurricane has a well-defined compact eye with a ring of cold cloud tops surrounding that feature. The Dvorak classifications at 0000Z were T5.5/102 kt from both TAFB and SAB, but since the cyclone has continued to strengthen, the initial intensity is increased to 110 kt. This value is below the latest Dvorak ADT numbers that are currently around 6.2/120 kt. Marie has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past 24 hours. Satellite fixes indicate that the hurricane is moving fairly quickly to the west-northwest on the south side of a mid-level ridge, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 285/13 kt. The system is expected to move slower to the west-northwest or northwest during the next several days as it nears the western periphery of the ridge and moves toward a broad trough well off the California coast. The models are in fair agreement in the short term, but there is a notable amount of spread in the guidance in 4 to 5 days, likely due to differences in the vertical depth of Marie and how much the trough influences its steering. The NHC track forecast remains near the consensus aids, and is largely an update of the previous one. The major hurricane will likely continue to strengthen during the next 12 to 24 hours while it remains in quite favorable conditions of low vertical wind shear, a moist air mass, and over warm 28-29 C SSTs. It should be noted that eyewall replacement cycles could occur during that time, which might cause fluctuations in the cyclone's strength. By Saturday, Marie is expected to level off in intensity and then rapidly weaken when the hurricane crosses the 26-deg-C SST isotherm and moves into an environment of increasing west-southwesterly shear and drier air. The NHC intensity forecast remains above the guidance in the short term, but falls in line with the bulk of the models beyond 36 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 15.6N 122.1W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 16.3N 123.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 17.3N 125.9W 125 KT 145 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.4N 127.4W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.4N 128.7W 95 KT 110 MPH 60H 04/1200Z 20.2N 130.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 20.8N 131.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 22.0N 134.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.4N 136.4W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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