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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 14
2020-10-02 16:47:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 021447 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 14 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 AM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Marie's structure has not changed significantly since the previous advisory. A recent AMSR microwave image showed that the hurricane continues to have a closed eyewall that is a little thin on the southeast side, but there are no clear indications that an eyewall replacement is occuring. Dvorak final-T numbers from TAFB and SAB diverged from 6 hours ago, with TAFB's going up to T6.5 and SAB's falling to T5.5. In addition, final-T numbers from the objective ADT scheme have decreased since six hours ago. Because of the estimate discrepancies, the initial intensity is being held at 115 kt. Marie is moving west-northwestward (290 degrees) at 12 kt, just a little to the left of and slower than the previous motion estimate. A large mid-tropospheric high centered over the southwestern United States continues to be the main driver of Marie's motion, but the hurricane should begin to reach a break in the ridge and turn toward the northwest in the next 24 hours. After that time, a general motion toward the northwest or west-northwest should continue through the end of the forecast period. The spread in the guidance does increase a bit by days 4 and 5, which appears to be related to the depth of the cyclone and how it interacts with the steering flow. Overall, though, the guidance envelope has not shifted, and the NHC forecast was only slowed down a bit to be more in line with the latest TVCE multi-model consensus and HCCA aid. Marie should remain in a low-shear environment and over waters warmer than 26 degrees Celsius for the next 24 hours, during which time some additional strengthening is possible. Any intensification could be thwarted by an eyewall replacement, but as stated above, that does not appear to be occuring at this time. Increasing deep-layer southwesterly shear and cooler waters should induce a definitive weakening trend after 24 hours, with Marie falling below hurricane strength by day 3, and then becoming a tropical depression by day 5. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted downward a bit during the weakening phase and lies near or just above the IVCN intensity consensus and the HCCA aid. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/1500Z 16.5N 124.3W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/0000Z 17.2N 125.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 03/1200Z 18.3N 127.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 04/0000Z 19.3N 128.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 04/1200Z 20.0N 129.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 60H 05/0000Z 20.6N 130.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 05/1200Z 21.0N 132.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 06/1200Z 22.0N 135.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 07/1200Z 23.5N 137.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg/Reinhart
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