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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 16
2020-10-03 04:38:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 030238 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 16 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Fri Oct 02 2020 Although Marie still has an impressive and very symetric appearance, cloud tops associated with the huricane have gradually warmed since this afternoon and its eye became less well-defined for a brief period earlier this evening. The cause of this recent trend is not immediately clear since Marie is still located within a favorable low-shear, high SST environment, and two microwave passses near 00Z (SSMIS and SSMI) did not show any sign of an eyewall replacement cycle. Whatever the reason, it has caused intensity estimates to decrease a little since the last advisory, but not enough to justify lowering the intensity at this time. The intial intensity therefore remains 115 kt for this advisory. With a range of estimates from 90 kt to 127 kt, there is a lot of uncertainty in this assessment. Although Marie is located in a favorable environment for now, that won't last much longer. The hurricane is moving toward colder waters and it should begin to experience a large increase in wind shear within the next day or so. The guidance unsurprisingly forecasts that weakening will occur, possibly at a very rapid rate. The NHC forecast is on the high side of the intensity guidance, but still shows Marie becoming a tropical storm within 60 h and a depression by the end of the 5 day period. No changes of note were made to the offficial intensity forecast. Marie has turned northwestward, and should continue on that general heading for most of the weekend as it moves along the southwest periphary of a mid-level ridge. A slight expansion of the ridge could steer Marie more west-northwestward for a day or two after that. Around day 5, a large deep-layer trough should cause the cyclone to turn nearly northward. While there is considerable spread in the track guidance, limiting confidence in the specifics of the track forecast, every global model forecasts that general evolution. The NHC track forecast is very close to the model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 17.5N 125.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.3N 126.8W 110 KT 125 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 19.2N 127.8W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 04/1200Z 20.0N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0000Z 20.6N 129.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 05/1200Z 21.1N 131.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 06/0000Z 21.6N 132.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 07/0000Z 22.5N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 08/0000Z 24.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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