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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 20
2020-10-04 04:33:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 040233 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 800 PM PDT Sat Oct 03 2020 Marie crossed the 26 degree SST isotherm earlier this evening and the cold waters and accompanying dry,stable air are having a big impact on the storm. Recent microwave imagery shows that the hurricane no longer has an closed eyewall in the southern portion of its inner core. Furthermore, cloud top temperatures have warmed and the hurricane's eye is barely discernible. A blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB is the primary basis for the initial intensity of 100 kt. Continued rapid weakening is anticipated for the next 36 to 48 h as Marie encounters very hostile environmental conditions. After that time, continued weakening is likely and most of the dynamical models indicate that the cyclone will lose its convection by around day 5, if not a little sooner. The hurricane is moving northwestward near 7 kt. A ridge extending westward from southwestern U.S. should keep Marie moving generally west-northwestward or northwestward at about the same forward speed for the next several days. Near the end of the forecast period, Marie will likely turn northward ahead of a deep layer trough approaching from the northwest. The spread in the track guidance is quite low, and confidence in the track forecast is fairly high, particularly since almost no change was made to the previous advisory forecast. Both the track and intensity forecasts are based on the multi-model consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0300Z 19.5N 127.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 04/1200Z 20.2N 128.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 05/0000Z 20.9N 130.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 05/1200Z 21.6N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 06/0000Z 22.3N 132.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 06/1200Z 22.9N 133.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 07/0000Z 23.7N 135.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 08/0000Z 24.7N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 09/0000Z 26.0N 136.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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