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Hurricane Marie Forecast Discussion Number 23
2020-10-04 22:32:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 042032 TCDEP3 Hurricane Marie Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP182020 200 PM PDT Sun Oct 04 2020 The center of Marie is now totally exposed, well to the south and southwest of a few remaining areas of deep convection. While Marie's convective pattern resembles a low-end tropical storm, it takes time for systems of Marie's magnitude to spin down, and the initial intensity of 65 kt is based on a blend of Final-T and CI Dvorak numbers from TAFB. A pair of ASCAT passes near 18Z explicitly showed winds near 55 kt, but it likely under sampled the peak winds of the hurricane's tight circulation. The ASCAT also showed that Marie's tropical-storm-force and 50-kt wind radii have not yet contracted very much. The position of Marie was adjusted a little to the west, and the track forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but is otherwise very similar to the previous advisory for the first 72 h. After that time, the most recent guidance suggests that Marie, then expected to be a remnant low, could turn due west, or even south of due west. This is a pretty big departure from previous solutions, so the NHC forecast has been adjusted in that direction, but not nearly as much as the model consensus. It should be noted that regardless of position, Marie is forecast to be a weak remnant low at 96 and 120 h. High shear, cool SSTs, and stable surrounding air should cause Marie to continue to quickly weaken for the next few days. Simulated satellite imagery suggests that the system could produce intermittent convection for up to 60 more hours. It isn't clear how well organized it will be, and given recent trends it is possible Marie will become a remnant low much sooner than currently forecast. The system will likely dissipate sometime near or just after 120 h. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 20.3N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 05/0600Z 20.7N 130.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 05/1800Z 21.4N 131.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 06/0600Z 22.1N 133.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1800Z 22.7N 134.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 07/0600Z 23.3N 135.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 07/1800Z 23.7N 136.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/1800Z 24.0N 138.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 09/1800Z 24.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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