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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-10-10 10:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 100848 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 0900 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 120 KTS...140 MPH...220 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 36(36) X(36) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 14(14) X(14) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) X(12) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 32(32) 5(37) X(37) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 19(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) 21(21) 1(22) X(22) X(22) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 28(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 27(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 2( 2) 14(16) 23(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 23(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 14(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 17(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 15(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 1( 1) 8( 9) 7(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) FLORENCE SC 34 X 5( 5) 41(46) 5(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COLUMBIA SC 34 X 9( 9) 60(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) X(69) COLUMBIA SC 50 X X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 3( 3) 13(16) 10(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 17(21) 6(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X 5( 5) 22(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) CHARLESTON SC 34 X 8( 8) 29(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 1 17(18) 31(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) BEAUFORT MCAS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTA GA 34 2 35(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) AUGUSTA GA 34 2 36(38) 49(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) X(87) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 2( 2) 31(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) AUGUSTA GA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 33(35) 23(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) SAVANNAH GA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) KINGS BAY GA 34 3 33(36) 3(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) WAYCROSS GA 34 5 71(76) 1(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) X(77) WAYCROSS GA 50 X 8( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) MAYPORT NS FL 34 3 24(27) 2(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) JACKSONVILLE 34 3 34(37) 2(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) X(39) JACKSONVILLE 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GAINESVILLE FL 34 9 32(41) 1(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) DAYTONA BEACH 34 2 6( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) THE VILLAGES 34 3 9(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) ORLANDO FL 34 2 4( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COCOA BEACH FL 34 1 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) VENICE FL 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 3 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) CEDAR KEY FL 34 45 11(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) CEDAR KEY FL 50 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 27 68(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 1 36(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) ST MARKS FL 34 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 27 57(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) ST MARKS FL 64 2 10(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 64 43 7(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 93 X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) GFMX 290N 850W 64 7 X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 99 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 64 95 2(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) X(97) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 55 1(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) COLUMBUS GA 34 11 81(92) 1(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) COLUMBUS GA 50 1 16(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) COLUMBUS GA 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 4( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MONTGOMERY AL 34 12 44(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) X(56) MONTGOMERY AL 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 93 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) WHITING FLD FL 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) WHITING FLD FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 91 X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) X(91) PENSACOLA FL 50 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PENSACOLA FL 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 51 X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) GFMX 290N 870W 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MOBILE AL 34 4 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) GULFPORT MS 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) STENNIS MS 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) JACKSON MS 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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