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Hurricane Michael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2018-10-10 16:50:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 101450 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MICHAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 1500 UTC WED OCT 10 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MICHAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 125 KTS...145 MPH...230 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT HIBERNIA OILFD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 41(49) X(49) HIBERNIA OILFD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) X(16) HIBERNIA OILFD 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 18(18) 5(23) X(23) CAPE RACE NFLD 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 46(46) X(46) X(46) SABLE ISLAND 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) X(15) X(15) SABLE ISLAND 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 12(16) X(16) X(16) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 32(33) X(33) X(33) X(33) OCEAN CITY MD 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) X(24) X(24) X(24) WALLOPS CDA 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 12(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) DANVILLE VA 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) 10(10) 37(47) X(47) X(47) X(47) NORFOLK NAS 50 X X( X) X( X) 9( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NORFOLK NAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 37(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) NORFOLK VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) 11(11) 40(51) X(51) X(51) X(51) OCEANA NAS VA 50 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) OCEANA NAS VA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) 22(22) 38(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) ELIZABETH CTY 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) ELIZABETH CTY 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GREENSBORO NC 34 X 2( 2) 15(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) RALEIGH NC 34 X 2( 2) 43(45) 1(46) X(46) X(46) X(46) RALEIGH NC 50 X X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ROCKY MT NC 34 X 1( 1) 49(50) 5(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) ROCKY MT NC 50 X X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ROCKY MT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) 15(15) 22(37) X(37) X(37) X(37) CAPE HATTERAS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X 3( 3) 57(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) X(60) FAYETTEVILLE 50 X X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) FAYETTEVILLE 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) CHARLOTTE NC 34 1 5( 6) 21(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) 36(36) 6(42) X(42) X(42) X(42) CHERRY PT NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CHERRY PT NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) 24(24) 7(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) NEW RIVER NC 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEW RIVER NC 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) MOREHEAD CITY 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOREHEAD CITY 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SURF CITY NC 34 X 2( 2) 32(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) SURF CITY NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WILMINGTON NC 34 X 2( 2) 33(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) WILMINGTON NC 50 X X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X 2( 2) 20(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FLORENCE SC 34 1 5( 6) 52(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) X(58) FLORENCE SC 50 X X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) COLUMBIA SC 34 2 32(34) 25(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) X(59) COLUMBIA SC 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) LITTLE RIVER 34 X 4( 4) 27(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X 4( 4) 25(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) GEORGETOWN SC 34 1 4( 5) 18(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) CHARLESTON SC 34 2 7( 9) 9(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 20(23) 2(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) ATLANTA GA 34 5 24(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) AUGUSTA GA 34 4 81(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) X(85) AUGUSTA GA 50 X 18(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) SAVANNAH GA 34 4 33(37) 1(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) KINGS BAY GA 34 10 12(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) WAYCROSS GA 34 62 16(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) WAYCROSS GA 50 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 6 7(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) JACKSONVILLE 34 12 9(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) GAINESVILLE FL 34 16 2(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) DAYTONA BEACH 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) THE VILLAGES 34 4 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) ORLANDO FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) TAMPA FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 18 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 20 X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) ST MARKS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST MARKS FL 50 79 X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) X(79) ST MARKS FL 64 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) APALACHICOLA 64 31 X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 850W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 64 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 12 X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) COLUMBUS GA 34 91 4(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) COLUMBUS GA 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) COLUMBUS GA 64 1 X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 20 1(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) WHITING FLD FL 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) PENSACOLA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GFMX 290N 870W 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MOBILE AL 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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