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Hurricane Milton Graphics
2024-10-10 04:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 02:50:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 10 Oct 2024 03:28:44 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Forecast Discussion Number 20
2024-10-10 04:49:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT44 KNHC 100249 TCDAT4 Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 Earlier Hurricane Hunter aircraft observations, WSR-88D radar imagery and velocities, and surface synoptic data indicate that Milton made landfall along the Florida Gulf coast just south of Tampa around 0030 UTC. The center is now moving over central Florida. While aircraft and Doppler velocity data indicated a landfall intensity of near 105 kt, assuming some inland decrease in intensity, the maximum winds are now estimated to be around 90 kt. There have been a number of surface reports of inland winds at damaging velocities. There have also been several reports of extreme rainfall rates, including one measurement of 5.09 inches in an hour at St. Petersburg. Center fixes indicate that the motion is east-northeastward, or 060/14 kt. Milton is now embedded within a belt of subtropical mid-tropospheric westerlies, and it should move across the Florida peninsula overnight. Afterward, the cyclone is likely to turn generally eastward during the ensuing few days while moving over the southwestern Atlantic waters and losing tropical characteristics. The official track forecast is similar to the dynamical model consensus early in the period and follows a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions in 2-4 days. The intensity guidance and the relatively fast forward speed of Milton indicate that the system will maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida. Milton is already interacting with a frontal zone and the global models show the system becoming embedded within the front in 24-36 hours. This guidance also suggests that Milton will not have sufficient baroclinic forcing to maintain its strength and will gradually spin down over the Atlantic, dissipating after 96 hours. Key Messages: 1. A large area of life-threatening storm surge is occurring along portions of the west-central coast of the Florida Peninsula and southwest Florida. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by damaging waves. Water levels will remain elevated into Thursday morning. 2. Damaging and life-threatening hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will spread inland across portions of the central Florida Peninsula to the Florida east coast within the Hurricane Warning area overnight and early Thursday. Residents should be prepared to take shelter in an interior room and away from windows. 3. Heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula through Thursday continues to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding combine to increase the overall flood threat. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 27.6N 82.0W 90 KT 105 MPH...INLAND 12H 10/1200Z 28.7N 80.0W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER 24H 11/0000Z 29.2N 76.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 29.3N 73.8W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 12/0000Z 29.0N 71.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 60H 12/1200Z 29.0N 68.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 13/0000Z 29.5N 65.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 14/0000Z 31.6N 59.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 15/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 20
2024-10-10 04:48:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 100248 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 1100 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON BRINGING DEVASTATING RAINS AND DAMAGING WINDS INLAND OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.6N 82.0W ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA ABOUT 100 MI...165 KM WSW OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued north of Anclote River. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Anclote River, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located inland near latitude 27.6 North, longitude 82.0 West. Milton is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on late Thursday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will continue to move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is forecast to maintain hurricane intensity while crossing Florida overnight. After moving into the Atlantic, Milton is expected to gradually lose tropical characteristics and slowly weaken. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A sustained wind of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 107 mph (172 km/h) was recently reported at a UF Sentinel/WeatherFlow station in Venice. A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 82 mph (131 km/h) was recently reported at Tampa International Airport. A gust of 94 mph (152 km/h) was recently reported at a Citizen Weather Observer Program station in Bartow. A sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a gust of 77 mph (124 km/h) was recently reported at Winter Haven Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb (28.35 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...3-5 ft Tampa Bay...3-5 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 8 to 14 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring within the hurricane warning area and are spreading east-northeastward across the Florida peninsula. Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and have already reached the east coast of Florida. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: A tornado or two is possible through early Thursday morning over parts of central and eastern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics