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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 092056 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 2100 UTC WED OCT 09 2024 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 105 KTS...120 MPH...195 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLESTON SC 34 1 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAVANNAH GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 23 8(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) WAYCROSS GA 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MAYPORT NS FL 34 38 12(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) X(50) JACKSONVILLE 34 18 8(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) X(26) GAINESVILLE FL 34 89 1(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) X(90) DAYTONA BEACH 34 94 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) DAYTONA BEACH 50 4 17(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) THE VILLAGES 50 31 7(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) ORLANDO FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ORLANDO FL 50 48 33(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) X(81) ORLANDO FL 64 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 95 5(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) COCOA BEACH FL 50 16 67(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) COCOA BEACH FL 64 1 26(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) X(27) PATRICK AFB 34 96 4(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PATRICK AFB 50 17 66(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) PATRICK AFB 64 1 27(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) X(28) FT PIERCE FL 34 86 8(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) FT PIERCE FL 50 6 17(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) X(23) FT PIERCE FL 64 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) W PALM BEACH 34 69 5(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) X(75) W PALM BEACH 50 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT LAUDERDALE 34 52 2(54) 1(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) X(55) MIAMI FL 34 12 1(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 6 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MARATHON FL 34 6 3( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) KEY WEST FL 34 5 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NAPLES FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NAPLES FL 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) FT MYERS FL 50 13 X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) VENICE FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) VENICE FL 64 84 X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) TAMPA FL 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 50 98 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) TAMPA FL 64 41 X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) X(41) CEDAR KEY FL 34 99 X(99) 1(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) CEDAR KEY FL 50 6 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ST MARKS FL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 10 1(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) X(11) GFMX 290N 850W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PANAMA CITY FL 34 3 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 3 X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) GRAND BAHAMA 34 16 20(36) 2(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) X(38) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 2 5( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) ANDROS 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Milton Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map
2024-10-09 22:56:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Storm Surge Watch/Warning Map last updated Wed, 09 Oct 2024 20:56:15 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Milton Public Advisory Number 19
2024-10-09 22:56:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 000 WTNT34 KNHC 092055 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024 500 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024 ...MILTON APPROACHING THE COAST OF WEST-CENTRAL FLORIDA... ...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA... SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.9N 83.4W ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WSW OF SARASOTA FLORIDA ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SW OF ORLANDO FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB...28.00 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Tropical Storm Watch north of the Savannah River to Edisto Beach South Carolina has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning. The Hurricane Watches for the Dry Tortugas, the Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the St. Marys River, and for the Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach have been discontinued. The Tropical Storm Watch north of Edisto Beach has been discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown, including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay * Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the St. Johns River A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River, including Tampa Bay * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward to Ponte Vedra Beach A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Lake Okeechobee * Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the Palm Beach/Martin County Line A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay * Lake Okeechobee * Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach * Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass * Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to Flamingo * North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to Edisto Beach South Carolina * Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the Abacos, and Bimini A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials. A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located near latitude 26.9 North, longitude 83.4 West. Milton is moving toward the northeast near 17 mph (28 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast is expected on Thursday, followed by a turn toward the east on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will make landfall near or just south of the Tampa Bay region this evening, move across the central part of the Florida peninsula overnight, and emerge off the east coast of Florida on Thursday. Maximum sustained winds are near 120 mph (195 km/h) with higher gusts. Milton is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton could still be a major hurricane when it reaches the coast of west-central Florida this evening, and it will remain a hurricane while it moves across central Florida through Thursday. Milton is forecast to weaken over the western Atlantic and become extratropical by Thursday night. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 255 miles (405 km). A WeatherFlow site located in Egmont Channel (XEGM) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 51 mph (82 km/h) with a wind gust of 63 mph (102 km/h). A WeatherFlow site located on the Sunshine Skyway Fishing Pier (XSKY) recently reported a sustained wind speed of 47 mph (76 km/h) with a wind gust of 62 mph (100 km/h). The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data is 948 mb (28.00 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...6-9 ft Tampa Bay...6-9 ft Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft Yankeetown, FL to Anclote River, FL...2-4 ft Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft St. Johns River...2-4 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm Surge Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge. RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to major river flooding. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning area across Florida this evening through Thursday morning and are possible in the hurricane watch area tonight and on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are occurring along the west coast of Florida and are forecast to spread across the peninsula and reach the east coast this evening or tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia and South Carolina coast on Thursday. Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the northwestern Bahamas on Thursday. TORNADOES: Several tornadoes, possibly including a few strong tornadoes, are likely this afternoon and tonight across parts of central and southern Florida. SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S. coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM EDT. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM EDT. $$ Forecaster Berg
Category: Transportation and Logistics