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Hurricane Milton Wind Speed Probabilities Number 9
2024-10-07 13:47:55| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 000 FONT14 KNHC 071147 PWSAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 AT 1200Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MILTON WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 110 KTS...125 MPH...205 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 8(11) X(11) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 8(13) X(13) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 23(23) 10(33) 1(34) KINGS BAY GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 6(11) X(11) KINGS BAY GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) X(12) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 12(40) 1(41) MAYPORT NS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) 1(14) MAYPORT NS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 7(22) X(22) JACKSONVILLE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 28(28) 6(34) X(34) GAINESVILLE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 3(12) X(12) GAINESVILLE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 33(33) 13(46) X(46) DAYTONA BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 5(16) X(16) DAYTONA BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 41(42) 8(50) X(50) THE VILLAGES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 19(19) 2(21) X(21) THE VILLAGES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 47(48) 8(56) 1(57) ORLANDO FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 4(21) X(21) ORLANDO FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) X( 5) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) COCOA BEACH FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 26(26) 9(35) X(35) COCOA BEACH FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 5(14) X(14) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 57(58) 12(70) X(70) PATRICK AFB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) PATRICK AFB 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 4(14) X(14) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 52(54) 10(64) X(64) FT PIERCE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 20(20) 7(27) X(27) FT PIERCE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 45(47) 5(52) X(52) W PALM BEACH 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 3(16) X(16) W PALM BEACH 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 40(42) 4(46) X(46) FT LAUDERDALE 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 1(11) X(11) FT LAUDERDALE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 2(22) X(22) MIAMI FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 1(20) X(20) HOMESTEAD ARB 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 30(37) X(37) X(37) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 32(44) X(44) X(44) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 10(10) 61(71) 2(73) X(73) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 34(35) 1(36) X(36) NAPLES FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 1(18) X(18) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 54(59) 2(61) X(61) FT MYERS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 29(29) 1(30) X(30) FT MYERS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) X(12) X(12) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 11(11) 74(85) 2(87) X(87) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 54(55) 3(58) X(58) VENICE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 34(34) 1(35) X(35) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 71(76) 5(81) X(81) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 46(47) 3(50) X(50) TAMPA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 27(27) 2(29) X(29) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 51(53) 4(57) X(57) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 24(24) 4(28) X(28) CEDAR KEY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 2(15) X(15) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 1(10) X(10) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 12(12) 2(14) X(14) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 2(24) X(24) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 29(33) 2(35) X(35) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 1(12) X(12) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 1(15) X(15) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) DOTHAN AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) X(13) X(13) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 4( 8) X( 8) X( 8) MERIDA MX 34 7 86(93) 1(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) X(94) MERIDA MX 50 X 47(47) 2(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) X(49) MERIDA MX 64 X 17(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) COZUMEL MX 34 1 7( 8) 24(32) 2(34) X(34) X(34) X(34) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BERMUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 25(25) 10(35) X(35) GRAND BAHAMA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) GRAND BAHAMA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) X(11) ANDROS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 18(44) 2(46) X(46) X(46) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) CP SAN ANTONIO 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) HAVANA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 6(12) X(12) X(12) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) X(11) X(11) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category:Transportation and Logistics
LATEST NEWS
Hurricane Milton Forecast Advisory Number 9
2024-10-07 13:47:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 934 WTNT24 KNHC 071147 TCMAT4 HURRICANE MILTON SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142024 1200 UTC MON OCT 07 2024 HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OR 115 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 945 MB EYE DIAMETER 15 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT. 64 KT....... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 70SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 75SE 75SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.8N 92.2W AT 07/1200Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 92.9W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 21.6N 91.5W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 60NE 80SE 80SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 21.8N 89.3W MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 90SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 22.9N 87.5W MAX WIND 130 KT...GUSTS 160 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 30NE 45SE 45SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 80SE 90SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 85.7W MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 30SE 30SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. 34 KT...110NE 100SE 100SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 26.4N 83.9W MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW. 34 KT...140NE 120SE 110SW 130NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 28.1N 81.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 80NW. 34 KT...160NE 140SE 110SW 150NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 30.0N 75.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 90NE 40SE 60SW 100NW. 34 KT...270NE 160SE 160SW 220NW. OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 31.5N 68.4W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 90SE 210SW 130NW. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.8N 92.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook
2024-10-07 13:37:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
000 ABPZ20 KNHC 071137 TWOEP Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Mon Oct 7 2024 For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP99): Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure located about 125 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico have increased during the past several hours, but remain disorganized. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next day or two while it moves slowly west-northwestward or northwestward, roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico. Interests along the southwestern coast of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of development, the disturbance could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Hagen
Category: Transportation and Logistics