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Hurricane NICOLE Forecast Discussion Number 43
2016-10-14 22:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 000 WTNT45 KNHC 142037 TCDAT5 HURRICANE NICOLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 43 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016 500 PM AST FRI OCT 14 2016 A few patches of disorganized deep convection have formed closer to the center of Nicole, although the majority of the cloud pattern is still comprised of low- to mid-level clouds and shallow convection. Based on a satellite intensity estimate of 65 kt from TAFB and earlier scatterometer data, the initial intensity is reduced to 65 kt. The initial motion is 065/17. There is no change in the track forecast philosophy from the last advisory. Nicole is embedded in the mid-latitude westerlies to the southeast of a deep-layer trough moving eastward through southeastern Canada. The dynamical models forecast the trough to bypass Nicole to the north after 24 hours, which will weaken the steering flow and reduce Nicole's forward speed during the 24-72 hour period. Subsequently, a new mid- latitude trough moving through southeastern Canada should steer Nicole northeastward at a faster forward speed. The guidance is still tightly clustered through 72 hours, and this part of the forecast track is an update of the previous track. Beyond that time, the guidance has again shifted northward, with the ECMWF in particular being faster and farther to the north than its previous run. Based on this, the latter part of the new forecast track is again nudged northward. The dynamical models remain in good agreement that Nicole should interact with the mid-latitude trough starting in 12 hours or less, with the models forecasting the winds to increase slightly and the central pressure to fall to 940-950 mb by 36 hours. As this occurs, the cyclone is most likely to develop into a post-tropical cyclone with a convection-less warm core secluded inside an encircling cooler air mass. However, an alternative scenario suggested by the GFS and ECMWF models is that organized convection re-develops inside the warm seclusion during the next 48-72 hours and allows Nicole to maintain tropical cyclone characteristics over sea surface temperatures of about 24C. The intensity forecast continues to call for the cyclone to become post-tropical, but there is lower confidence that this will happen than on the previous advisory. As done before, the post-tropical portion of Nicole's intensity and wind radii forecasts have been modified based on input from the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Swells from Nicole will affect Bermuda and portions of the U.S. east coast and Atlantic Canada during the next couple of days. By early next week, wave models suggest that long-period swell from Nicole will radiate outward and affect much of the North Atlantic basin. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/2100Z 36.5N 55.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 15/0600Z 37.5N 52.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 15/1800Z 38.3N 50.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 16/0600Z 38.5N 48.6W 70 KT 80 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 16/1800Z 38.7N 47.6W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 17/1800Z 40.5N 45.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 18/1800Z 47.0N 40.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 19/1800Z 53.0N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Beven
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