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Hurricane NORBERT Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-05 16:54:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051454 TCDEP4 HURRICANE NORBERT DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142014 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 05 2014 The cloud pattern continues to be fairly well organized with a large area of deep convection near the center and an eye feature noted in microwave data. Objective and subjective Dvorak T-numbers have changed little and still support an initial intensity of 80 kt. Norbert is moving over an area of above normal sea surface temperatures and within an environment of low shear, so there is no reason for the cyclone to change much in intensity today. After that time, the circulation will gradually begin to move over cooler waters and into a more stable environment, resulting in a gradual weakening. Norbert's slow motion over cold water parallel to the Baja California Peninsula will tend to limit the cyclone's impact north of the current warning area. The new NHC forecast is similar to the previous one and follows the intensity consensus ICON. Norbert has been wobbling during the past 12 to 24 hours, but the average motion is toward the northwest or 320 degrees at 7 kt. The cyclone is expected to continue on this general track around the mid-level ridge over Mexico for the next 2 to 3 days. Thereafter, the steering currents are forecast to weaken as a trough in the westerlies swings by to the north of Norbert. The cyclone should then slow down and begin to meander. There is high confidence in the first 3 days of the forecast since guidance is tightly clustered. After that time, there is less confidence due to the large spread in model tracks, but the general trend is either little motion or a slow turn toward the northeast. By then, Norbert is expected to be a weak tropical storm or a remnant low. Moisture from the remnants of Dolly and the Pacific ITCZ is being advected northward by the outer circulation of Norbert across northern Mexico and into the southwestern United States. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in these areas during the next few days. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.2N 112.1W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.1N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 25.0N 114.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 07/0000Z 25.8N 115.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 116.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 08/1200Z 28.0N 118.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 09/1200Z 29.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 10/1200Z 30.0N 118.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Avila
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