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Hurricane Nora Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-28 16:49:49| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 281449 TCMEP4 HURRICANE NORA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142021 1500 UTC SAT AUG 28 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WATCH NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO TOPOLOBAMPO AND HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING NORTHWARD FROM MAZATLAN TO ALTATA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WATCH SOUTH OF MANZANILLO AND HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING SOUTH OF LAZARO CARDENAS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * MANZANILLO TO SAN BLAS MEXICO A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO TOPOLOBAMPO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SOUTH OF MANZANILLO TO LAZARO CARDENAS MEXICO * NORTH OF SAN BLAS TO ALTATA MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CABO SAN LUCAS TO LA PAZ MEXICO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE COASTS OF SINALOA...SONORA...AND BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF NORA. ADDITIONAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY OR ON SUNDAY. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 981 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT. 64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 30SW 50NW. 34 KT.......150NE 150SE 120SW 140NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 300SE 180SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 105.4W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 105.3W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.1N 105.8W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 50 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 80SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.0N 106.5W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 23.1N 107.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 23.8N 108.0W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 24.5N 108.9W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 25.2N 109.6W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 30NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 26.9N 110.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 29.3N 111.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 105.4W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPEP4...AT 28/1800Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BERG
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