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Hurricane Nora Public Advisory Number 13A
2021-08-29 01:53:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 282353 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Hurricane Nora Intermediate Advisory Number 13A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP142021 700 PM CDT Sat Aug 28 2021 ...NORA'S CENTER REMAINS NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO AFTER MAKING LANDFALL IN NORTHWEST JALISCO... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.2N 105.4W ABOUT 30 MI...50 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning from Lazaro Cardenas to Manzanillo. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Manzanillo to Altata Mexico A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * North of Altata to Topolobampo Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Cabo San Lucas to La Paz Mexico A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests elsewhere along the coasts of Sinaloa, Sonora, and Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Nora. Additional watches and warnings may be required for portions of these areas tonight or on Sunday. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Nora was located near the coast of Mexico at latitude 20.2 North, longitude 105.4 West. Surface data from Mexico and data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nora made landfall along the northwest coast of Jalisco near Vincente Guerrero, and has continued to move near the coast since then. Nora is moving toward the north near 14 mph (22 km/h). A turn toward north-northwest is possible tonight and on Sunday, followed by a slower northwestward motion Sunday night through Tuesday. On the current forecast track, the center of Nora will continue to move near the coast of Mexico during the next several hours. It could then re-emerge over the Gulf of California, moving roughly parallel to the coast of Mexico through early next week. However, even a small deviation of the hurricane's motion to the right could cause Nora to move further inland and dissipate. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days if Nora's center moves over the waters of the Gulf of California. However, weakening would likely occur if the center moves further inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Nora can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP4, WMO header WTPZ44 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep4.shtml?key_messages. WIND: Hurricane conditions will continue in portions of the southern parts of the hurricane warning area and are likely to spread northward within hurricane warning area through Sunday. Hurricane conditions are also possible within the hurricane watch area late Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area in Baja California Sur on Monday. RAINFALL: Nora is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 12 inches with maximum amounts of 20 inches this weekend into early next week along the west coast of Mexico from the Mexican states of Guerrero northward to southern Sonora, including Baja California Sur. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Toward the middle and latter part of next week, moisture associated with Nora may bring heavy rainfall to portions of the southwestern U.S. and central Rockies. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Nora are affecting the southern and southwestern coast of Mexico and will spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur and into the Gulf of California into early next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster D. Zelinsky
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