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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 20
2018-09-02 04:36:13| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 602 WTPZ41 KNHC 020236 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 800 PM PDT Sat Sep 01 2018 Norman looked a little ragged in satellite imagery near 0000 UTC. Since that time, though, the hurricane looks better organized, with the eyewall convection better defined in visible and infrared imagery. Satellite intensity estimates have changed little since the past advisory, so the initial intensity remains a possibly generous 90 kt. The initial motion is now 280/11. The hurricane is expected to be steered by a strong deep-layer subtropical ridge to the north, resulting in a generally west-northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed during the next 2-3 days. After that time, a decrease in forward speed is expected as Norman approaches a weakness in the ridge. There is some spread in the guidance at days 4-5, with the HWRF on the north side of the guidance envelope showing a northwestward turn and the GFS on the south side showing a more westward motion. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track and lies just to the south of the center of the guidance envelope. Norman is expected to be in a light shear environment for 48-72 h. However, during this time the cyclone will be moving over cooler sea surface temperatures and into a drier air mass. Based on the guidance, the intensity forecast calls for little change in strength for 24 h followed by a gradual weakening from 24-72 h. After 72 h, increasing southerly shear should cause a faster weakening. It should be noted that there is a chance that Norman could get stronger than forecast while over warm water during the next 12-18 h as indicated by the HWRF and HMON models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.7N 126.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.1N 128.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.0N 131.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 18.9N 134.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 04/0000Z 19.8N 137.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 05/0000Z 21.0N 143.5W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 06/0000Z 21.5N 147.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 07/0000Z 23.0N 150.5W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
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