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Hurricane Norman Forecast Discussion Number 25
2018-09-03 10:46:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 349 WTPZ41 KNHC 030846 TCDEP1 Hurricane Norman Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162018 200 AM PDT Mon Sep 03 2018 Its possible that Norman has peaked, perhaps permanently this time. Cloud tops have notably warmed around the eye, which itself has become less distinct in IR imagery overnight. The initial intensity has been lowered to 110 kt based on a blend of subjective Dvorak final-T and CI numbers from TAFB and SAB, and the UW-CIMSS ADT. Based on trends over the past hour or two, it's possible Norman has weakened even more than indicated. All of the intensity guidance suggests that Norman should steadily weaken over the next several days due to a combination of marginal SSTs, moderate shear, and a drier surrounding environment, though this was the case last night as well shortly before Norman quickly re-intensified to major hurricane strength. Since another sudden period of intensification doesn't appear imminent, the new NHC intensity forecast is very close to the consensus through day 5, and only minor changes were made from the previous advisory. The estimated initial motion is now 285/17 kt. Norman should continue moving very quickly toward the central Pacific over the next 24 hours as it is steered by a strong subtropical ridge to the north. By later this week, all of the global models forecast that the hurricane will slow down, and then turn toward the northwest toward a weakness in the ridge. There is still a fair amount of spread in the track guidance, particularly regarding the speed of Norman after it begins to turn northwestward around day 4 or 5, so confidence is in this portion of the track forecast is low. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted slightly south of the previous advisory for the first 72 h, following the HCCA and TVCX consensus aids, but is fairly similar after that. Based on the current forecast, Norman is expected to cross into the central Pacific later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 19.0N 134.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 19.5N 137.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 20.0N 140.4W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 20.2N 143.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 20.4N 145.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 21.2N 149.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 23.5N 151.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 27.0N 153.5W 50 KT 60 MPH $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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