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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 13
2014-09-13 10:48:22| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 130848 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 The satellite presentation of Odile has changed quickly during the past few hours, and the convective pattern now consists of a CDO pattern with the center underneath the convective canopy. Satellite classifications from TAFB and SAB were both T4.0/65 kt at 06Z, and on this basis Odile is upgraded to a hurricane for this advisory. Given that the shear has decreased and the cyclone is situated over SSTs of around 29C, conditions are favorable for at least steady intensification. In fact, the SHIPS model indicates a 57 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. However, most of the intensity guidance is less aggressive. Also, a TRMM pass around 04Z suggested that the low-level center was displaced a little to the west of the mid-level center, suggesting that the inner core of Odile may not be aligned. The NHC intensity forecast has been adjusted upward in the short term to account for the observed intensification, but still shows a peak at 90 kt in 48 hours. After that time, the cyclone will be moving over cooler waters and weakening is forecast. The NHC forecast is near the high end of the intensity guidance and is close to the SHIPS model and the FSU Superensemble. The initial motion estimate is 315/04. Odile should accelerate northwestward today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However, significant spread develops in the model guidance after 24 hours, with the latest ECMWF, UKMET, and GFDL solutions show a track farther to the right, closer to or over portions of Baja California. The GFS, GEFS ensemble mean and HWRF are on the left side of the guidance envelope with a track well west of Baja California. These differences appear to be due to variability in the western extent of the subtropical ridge north of Odile and how fast a mid-latitude trough approaches the U.S. West Coast late in the period. The ECMWF model has shifted sharply to the right this cycle, with a more progressive trough turning Odile toward the north-northwest late in the period. The new NHC track forecast is an update of the previous one through 48 hours, and is a little to the right of the previous track after that time, close to the TVCE consensus and the FSU Superensemble. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence in the details of the track forecast, including the potential threat to Baja California, is below normal. A tropical storm watch has been issued for the southern part of the Baja California peninsula. Additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for portions of Baja California later today. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 16.4N 105.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 16.8N 106.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 18.0N 107.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 19.6N 109.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 21.3N 110.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 23.8N 113.7W 80 KT 90 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 26.0N 116.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 27.0N 117.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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