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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-09-13 16:59:21| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 131459 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014 The first-light visible satellite images show that Odile has continued to become better organized. The central dense overcast has become much more symmetric with some hints of an eye, which is consistent with a TRMM microwave pass from around 1200 UTC. A blend of the satellite intensity estimates gives 70 kt as the initial wind speed. Further strengthening seems likely over the next day or so given the very warm waters and low shear. Steady or even rapid intensification appears to be most probable during that time, and the NHC forecast continues the trend of the last forecast to be above almost all of the guidance. Odile could start to weaken on Monday since it is forecast to pass near the cold wake of Norbert, with generally cooler waters expected after that time. The NHC forecast is blended with the previous NHC prediction and the intensity consensus. The TRMM pass gives a more confident initial motion estimate of 310/5. Odile should accelerate northwestward by late today as a mid-level ridge amplifies to the northeast of the cyclone. However, significant spread remains in the model guidance near and after 24 hours, with a fair number of models close to Baja California Sur. The subtropical ridge strength over the eastern Pacific, along with any potential interaction with Tropical Depression 16-E, is making this forecast rather complicated. With little change to the guidance this cycle, the new NHC forecast track will remain close to the previous one. Given the spread in the guidance, confidence remains below normal in the details of the track forecast, including the potential threat to Baja California. Depending on the 1200 UTC model cycle, additional watches and/or warnings could be needed for portions of the Baja California peninsula later today. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States for early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. This is a similar pattern which occurred early this week with Norbert and the remnants of Dolly. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/1500Z 16.6N 106.0W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 14/0000Z 17.3N 106.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 14/1200Z 18.9N 108.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 15/0000Z 20.6N 110.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 15/1200Z 22.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 16/1200Z 24.4N 114.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 17/1200Z 26.5N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/1200Z 27.5N 117.2W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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