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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 20
2014-09-15 05:04:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150303 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014 CORRECTED STATUS FROM EXTRATROPICAL TO REMNANT LOW AT 120 HOURS Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a radius of about 25 n mi. This broadening of the inner-core wind field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt. This is somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates. Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract and complete the eyewall replacement cycle. Weakening is expected to commence by early Monday. The amount of weakening over the next several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the Baja California Peninsula. On the latest NHC forecast track, the center is expected to remain over land for much of the period. Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower than the previous one. The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier today. Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted accordingly. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W 110 KT 125 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Pasch
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