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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 21
2014-09-15 10:54:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 150854 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 200 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 Satellite data showed that Odile made landfall near Cabo San Lucas around 0445 UTC. The estimated intensity of 110 kt at landfall ties Odile with Olivia (1967) as the strongest hurricane to make landfall in the satellite era in the state of Baja California Sur. Since landfall, the eye of Odile has filled in conventional satellite imagery, but the inner-core convection remains strong and very symmetric. The initial wind speed has been reduced to 100 kt for this advisory. The hurricane should steadily weaken during the next few days while the circulation and inner-core continue to interact with the Baja California peninsula. The latest NHC forecast is close to the intensity consensus, and is lower than the previous NHC advisory. Odile is moving north-northwestward at 14 kt. The cyclone is forecast to move northwestward to north-northwestward around the western portion of a mid-level ridge over the southern United States during the next couple of days. The forward speed of Odile should slow down as the cyclone weakens and becomes a more shallow system. In a few days, the low-level circulation is forecast to turn northward, then northeastward, and dissipate over northern Mexico or the northern portion of the Gulf of California in 4 to 5 days. The NHC track forecast lies between the latest GFS and ECMWF models. Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track. Moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States during the next several days. This could result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 23.7N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 12H 15/1800Z 25.1N 111.7W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/0600Z 26.7N 112.8W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 36H 16/1800Z 28.0N 113.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/0600Z 29.0N 114.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 30.0N 113.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 19/0600Z 30.7N 113.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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