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Hurricane ODILE Forecast Discussion Number 22
2014-09-15 16:56:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 151455 TCDEP5 HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014 800 AM PDT MON SEP 15 2014 Microwave satellite images indicate that the center of Hurricane Odile is displaced southwest of the conventional fixes, placing the center just inland along the west coast of Baja California Sur north of Santa Fe. The eye is still apparent in the microwave data, so the intensity is being lowered slowly since much of the low-level circulation is still over water on both sides of the Baja peninsula. The initial motion is northwestward or 325/12 kt, based mainly on microwave satellite positions. Odile is expected to move slowly northwestward to north-northwestward for the next 36-48 hours, essentially remaining inland over the Baja California peninsula. As Odile rounds the western portion of a deep-layer ridge located over northern Mexico, the cyclone is expected to emerge over the northern Gulf of California as a severely weakened and shallow low pressure system on Day 3, and is expected to move inland over northwestern Mexico as a remnant low on Day 4. The NHC track forecast is just an update of the previous advisory track and lies close to the consensus model TVCE. Due to the expected prolonged interaction with the mountainous terrain of the Baja California peninsula, the surface winds are forecast to rapidly decrease during the next 48 hours, and the official intensity forecast closely follows the Decay-SHIPS model. However, it is important to note that the circulation aloft will not weaken as quickly as the low-level flow and, as a result, wind speeds atop and on the windward sides of hills and mountains can often up to 30 percent stronger than indicated in this advisory. In some elevated locations, the winds can be even greater. Since strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of Odile, users should not focus on the exact forecast track. Also, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United States during the next few days. These factors, in combination with Odile's eventual slow forward speed, will likely result in heavy rains and life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see information from your local weather office for more details. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/1500Z 24.7N 111.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 16/0000Z 26.0N 112.3W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND 24H 16/1200Z 27.5N 113.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND 36H 17/0000Z 28.6N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 17/1200Z 29.6N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/1200Z 30.5N 113.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 19/1200Z 31.0N 112.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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