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Hurricane OLAF Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-10-18 16:36:53| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 181436 TCDEP4 HURRICANE OLAF DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192015 800 AM PDT SUN OCT 18 2015 The could pattern of Olaf features a CDO with a primary convective band extending into the southern and western semicircles. A 0726Z GPM image showed a well-defined low- and mid-level eye, and the initial intensity has been nudged upward to 70 kt, a little above the latest Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. Further strengthening appears likely for the next couple of days while the hurricane moves over warm waters and through a generally low-shear environment. The SHIPS RI index continues to suggest that rapid intensification is possible, with a 47 percent chance of a 25-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The new NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is along the upper edge of the guidance, closest to the LGEM forecast. By 72 hours, the cyclone will be moving over somewhat cooler waters with a slight increase in shear, which should result in slow weakening late in the period. Olaf continues to move quickly westward, with an initial motion estimate of 275/10. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Olaf expected to gradually turn poleward during the forecast period as the subtropical ridge initially to the northwest of Olaf lifts northward and weakens. The track model guidance is in good agreement on this scenario, but continues to trend toward a more gradual northward turn. The new NHC track forecast has been adjusted a little to the left of the previous one and is close to the latest multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/1500Z 9.5N 133.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 19/0000Z 9.7N 134.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 19/1200Z 10.2N 136.3W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 20/0000Z 10.8N 138.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 20/1200Z 11.6N 139.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 21/1200Z 13.5N 142.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 96H 22/1200Z 15.5N 143.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 120H 23/1200Z 17.8N 144.1W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Brennan
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