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Hurricane Olaf Public Advisory Number 10
2021-09-10 04:47:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 100247 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Hurricane Olaf Advisory Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021 900 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021 ...EYE OF OLAF ABOUT TO MAKE LANDFALL AT SAN JOSE DEL CABO MEXICO... ...HURRICANE CONDITIONS SPREADING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 109.6W ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM ENE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM SSE OF LA PAZ MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...974 MB...28.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico from Los Barriles to Cabo San Lazaro. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Cabo San Lazaro to Puerto San Andresito * Baja California Sur Mexico north of Los Barriles to Loreto A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the hurricane warning area, in this case within the next 12 to 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the tropical storm warning area within 36 hours. Interests elsewhere in Baja California Sur should monitor the progress of Olaf. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Olaf was located near latitude 23.0 North, longitude 109.6 West. Olaf is moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. A turn toward the west is expected Friday night, followed by a turn toward the southwest by Saturday night. On the forecast track, the center of Olaf will move over the southern coast of the Baja California peninsula during the next hour or so, and then move very near or over southern Baja California Sur tonight and on Friday. The hurricane will begin to move westward away from land late Friday or early Saturday. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 100 mph (155 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected through Friday as Olaf interacts with land. Further weakening is likely over the weekend after Olaf moves away from Baja California Sur. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km). A weather station at Cabo San Lucas reported sustained winds of 47 mph (76 km/h) and a gust to 84 mph (135 km/h) during the past couple of hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb (28.77 inches). A Weatherflow station near San Jose del Cabo recently reported a pressure of 979 mb (28.91 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Olaf can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep5.shtml?key_messages WIND: Hurricane conditions are spreading across the coast within the hurricane warning area at this time and should continue to spread northward through Friday. Tropical storm conditions are also occuring over portions of Baja California Sur and will spread northward during the next several hours, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion. Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin in southern portions of the tropical storm warning area Friday night. RAINFALL: Olaf is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 5 to 10 inches with maximum amounts of 15 inches across portions of southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce coastal flooding within the warning areas in regions of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and damaging waves. SURF: Swells generated by Olaf are affecting portions of the coasts of southern Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, and will spread northward along the west coast of Baja California Sur through Saturday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 1200 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Beven
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