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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 10
2015-10-22 19:59:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221759 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 100 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 This Special Advisory updates the initial and forecast intensity of Patricia, based on a recent NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft SFMR observation of 114 kt. The aircraft reported that the central pressure was around 958 mb. Some of the wind radii have also been adjusted outward. This Special Advisory replaces the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. Some slight weakening is shown on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase, and Patricia could undergo an eyewall replacement cycle. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. No change was made to the track forecast from the previous advisory. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1800Z 15.0N 104.0W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 125 KT 145 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 120 KT 140 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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