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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 11
2015-10-22 22:34:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 222034 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia has an impressive satellite presentation, with a small 10 n mi wide eye surrounded by convective cloud tops of -80C to -90C. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter Aircraft found that the pressure had fallen to about 953 mb on their final pass through the center, after indicating earlier that the intensity had increased to 115 kt, which remains the intensity for this advisory. Further strengthening is indicated by much of the intensity guidance given that the shear remains low and the hurricane is over SSTs of 30-31C. The official forecast shows the cyclone peaking at 135 kt in 12 hours, followed by a little weakening prior to landfall as the shear increases, and this is close to the latest intensity consensus aids. Patricia could also undergo an eyewall replacement cycle before landfall that could result in fluctuations in intensity not shown here. After landfall, the hurricane should quickly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 72 hours. The hurricane has begun turning a bit more poleward and slowed down during the past few hours, with an initial motion estimate of 300/11. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track is again a bit to the left of the previous one and is close to the new GFS/ECMWF consensus along on the western side of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has extended the hurricane warning north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/2100Z 15.4N 104.6W 115 KT 130 MPH 12H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.6W 135 KT 155 MPH 24H 23/1800Z 18.1N 105.9W 130 KT 150 MPH 36H 24/0600Z 20.6N 104.9W 100 KT 115 MPH...INLAND 48H 24/1800Z 23.3N 102.8W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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