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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 12
2015-10-23 04:40:19| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230240 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 PM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to explosively intensify, with the eye becoming warmer and better defined, along with a solid ring of very cold -90C cloud tops in the eyewall. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates support an initial wind speed of 140 kt, and an An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance unit aircraft is en route to check the intensity of the hurricane. Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 kt in the past 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a category 5 hurricane during that time. This is a remarkable feat, with only Linda of 1997 intensifying at this rate in the satellite era. The hurricane could strengthen a little more before increasing southwesterly shear causes Patricia to weaken some by Friday afternoon, although it should remain an extremely dangerous hurricane through landfall. The latest forecast is close to the previous NHC prediction, updated for the higher initial wind speed. After landfall, the hurricane should rapidly weaken over the high terrain and dissipate by 48 hours over the Sierra Madre mountains. The hurricane continues to turn more poleward and slow down, with an initial motion estimate of 330/9. The track forecast reasoning remains unchanged with Patricia expected to turn northward during the next 12 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. The hurricane is then forecast to accelerate north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The latest NHC forecast is close to the previous one, nudged a bit to the east to better reflect the latest consensus guidance. Model guidance continues to suggest that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area overnight or early Friday. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero beginning late tonight and continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0300Z 16.2N 105.1W 140 KT 160 MPH 12H 23/1200Z 17.4N 105.7W 145 KT 165 MPH 24H 24/0000Z 19.7N 105.3W 125 KT 145 MPH...ON THE COAST 36H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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