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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-10-23 10:34:57| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 230834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 Data from three center fixes by the Hurricane Hunters indicate that the intensity, based on a blend of 700 mb-flight level and SFMR-observed surface winds, is near 175 kt. This makes Patricia the strongest hurricane on record in the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility (AOR) which includes the Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific basins. The minimum central pressure estimated from the aircraft data, 880 mb, is the lowest ever for our AOR. It seems incredible that even more strengthening could occur before landfall later today, but recent microwave imagery shows hints of a concentric eyewall developing. If the trend toward an eyewall replacement continues, it would cause the intensity to at least level off later today. The official forecast shows only a little more strengthening before landfall. Given the very mountainous terrain that Patricia should encounter after landfall, the cyclone should weaken even faster over land than predicted by the normal inland decay rate. Recent center fixes show that the hurricane is gradually turning toward the right, and the initial motion estimate is 340/10 kt. The track forecast scenario remains about the same. Patricia should continue to move around the western periphery of a mid-level anticyclone today and turn north-northeastward ahead of a trough to the northwest tonight and Saturday. The official track forecast is somewhat slower than the latest model consensus and lies between the GFS and ECMWF solutions. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. Based on the predicted upper-level winds, this system should be non-tropical in nature. However this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. We would like to acknowledge deeply the Air Force Hurricane Hunters for their observations establishing Patricia as a record-breaking hurricane. Clearly, without their data, we would never have known just how strong a tropical cyclone it was. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are beginning to affect the area. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/0900Z 17.0N 105.5W 175 KT 200 MPH 12H 23/1800Z 18.8N 105.4W 180 KT 205 MPH 24H 24/0600Z 21.7N 104.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND 36H 24/1800Z 24.5N 102.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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