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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 16
2015-10-23 23:03:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 232103 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 PM CDT FRI OCT 23 2015 A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported that Patricia changed little in intensity through about 1800 UTC. The aircraft measured 192 kt flight-level winds at 700 mb in the southeastern eyewall, with a 166 kt surface wind estimate from the Stepped Frequency Microwave radiometer. The central pressure estimated from an eye dropsonde was 879 mb. Since that time, the eye has become cloud-filled, and data from the plane suggest the formation of an outer wind maximum, with decreasing winds in the eyewall, and an increasing central pressure. All of these indicate that the hurricane is weakening. The initial intensity is reduced to 165 kt, and this could be generous. Patricia is expected to remain a Category 5 hurricane until landfall in southwestern Mexico in a few hours. After landfall, a combination of the mountainous terrain of Mexico and increasing shear should cause the cyclone to rapidly weaken, with the system likely to dissipate completely after 36 hours, if not sooner. Patricia is now moving north-northeastward with an initial motion of 015/12. The cyclone is recurving into the westerlies between a mid-level anticyclone to its east and a deep-layer trough over northwestern Mexico and the southwestern U. S., and a faster motion toward the north-northeast is expected for the rest of the cyclone's life. The new forecast track is shifted a little to the east of the previous track based on the initial position and motion. It lies near the center of the guidance envelope at 12 hours and little to the left of the center after that time. The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia's remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days. Refer to statements from local National Weather Service forecast offices for details. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane during the next few hours. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should have been completed, or rushed to completion, as tropical storm conditions are spreading across the area and hurricane conditions are about to occur. Residents in low-lying areas near the coast in the hurricane warning area should evacuate immediately, since the storm surge could be catastrophic near and to the east of where the center makes landfall. 2. In addition to the coastal impacts, very heavy rainfall is likely to cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides in the Mexican states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan and Guerrero continuing into Saturday. 3. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reports that at this time, the Category 5 winds are occurring over a very small area near the center - about 15 miles across. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 23/2100Z 18.9N 105.2W 165 KT 190 MPH 12H 24/0600Z 21.1N 104.2W 110 KT 125 MPH...INLAND 24H 24/1800Z 24.0N 102.2W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 36H 25/0600Z 26.9N 100.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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