je.st
news
Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 8
2015-10-22 10:34:47| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 220834 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 400 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia has become significantly better organized overnight, with an eye evident on infrared imagery, and the system now has well-defined convective banding features. The initial intensity estimate is set at 75 kt, which is above the Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB at 0600 UTC to account for the increased organization since that time. This is also in good agreement with the most recent ADT estimates from UW-CIMSS. Upper-level outflow is strong, as evidenced by the expanding cirrus canopy. The hurricane has been moving a little faster toward the west-northwest, or around 295/15 kt. There has not been much change to the track forecast philosophy. Patricia is likely to move around the southwestern periphery of a mid-tropospheric high pressure area during the next day or so. By late Friday, the system should turn toward the north-northeast as it moves between the high and a trough over extreme northwestern Mexico. The official track forecast is nudged very slightly to the west to account for a slight westward shift in the GFS/ECMWF consensus. This is also very close to the overall dynamical model consensus. The environment appears to be very conducive for strengthening for the next 24 hours or so, with some increase in south-southwesterly shear and some mid-tropospheric drying later on Friday. An earlier 37 GHz GPM image showed a cyan ring around the eye, which often presages rapid intensification. Given that, and the currently favorable atmospheric and oceanic conditions, rapid strengthening (30 kt over 24 h) is forecast through tonight followed by a slower pace of intensification up to landfall. This is in good agreement with the latest DSHIPS prediction. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 14.3N 102.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 15.3N 103.9W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 16.5N 105.3W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 18.0N 105.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 20.3N 104.8W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/0600Z 25.0N 101.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
Tags: number
discussion
patricia
forecast
Category:Transportation and Logistics
Latest from this category |
All news |
||||||||||||||||||
|
|||||||||||||||||||