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Hurricane PATRICIA Forecast Discussion Number 9
2015-10-22 16:42:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 221442 TCDEP5 HURRICANE PATRICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP202015 1000 AM CDT THU OCT 22 2015 Patricia continues to strengthen, with an eye evident in recent microwave images and intermittently seen in infrared imagery. The initial intensity is set to 85 kt, a bit above the latest UW-CIMSS ADT estimate of T4.7/82 kt, and this could be a little conservative if the eye becomes more distinct in infrared imagery. Even so, Patricia has intensified 50 kt in the last 24 hours. A NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate Patricia later today and provide valuable information on the intensity and structure of the hurricane. The environment is expected to be conducive for continued rapid strengthening in the next 24 hours, with the cyclone in an area of very low shear and SSTs above 30C. In fact, the SHIPS RI index shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the next 24 hours. The official forecast is close to the upper end of the guidance near the LGEM, and shows Patricia reaching major hurricane status by this evening and continuing to intensify through Friday morning. Little change in intensity is forecast on Friday prior to landfall, as southwesterly shear begins to increase. After landfall, Patricia should rapidly weaken, and the low-level circulation should dissipate over the high terrain of Mexico before 72 hours. The hurricane continues to move quickly west-northwestward, with an initial motion estimate of 295/15. The track forecast philosophy has not changed, with Patricia expected to turn northwestward and then northward during the next 24 hours as it moves around the periphery of a mid-level high centered over the Gulf of Mexico. Then, the hurricane should turn north-northeastward between the high and an amplifying trough over northwestern Mexico. The new NHC track has again been shifted a little to the left to account for the initial motion and is near the latest GFS/ECMWF consensus on the western side of the guidance envelope. Based on the latest forecast, the government of Mexico has issued a hurricane watch and a tropical storm warning from north of Cabo Corrientes to San Blas, which includes the Puerto Vallarta area. Note that model guidance suggests that the mid-level remnants and moisture from Patricia will be absorbed by a non-tropical area of low pressure that forms over south Texas or the northwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. This moisture could contribute to a major rainfall event already ongoing across portions of Texas. For more information, please refer to products from your local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Confidence is increasing that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area as an extremely dangerous major hurricane Friday afternoon or evening. Preparations to protect life and property in the hurricane warning area should be completed today, as tropical storm conditions will begin to affect the warning area tonight or early Friday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1500Z 14.9N 103.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 12H 23/0000Z 15.8N 105.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 23/1200Z 17.2N 105.7W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 24/0000Z 19.3N 105.5W 115 KT 130 MPH 48H 24/1200Z 22.5N 103.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...INLAND 72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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