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Hurricane Pablo Forecast Discussion Number 9
2019-10-27 21:32:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 000 WTNT43 KNHC 272032 TCDAT3 Hurricane Pablo Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182019 500 PM AST Sun Oct 27 2019 Pablo continues to have a remarkably impressive appearance for a tropical cyclone over such cold waters. The hurricane's eye remains evident in most satellite imagery channels, with a solid ring of cloud tops colder than 50C surrounding it. This maintenance of the deep convection can be attributed to an environment of very cold temperatures aloft, which can allow for the hurricane to remain intact over waters colder than those typically observed. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remains unchanged from 6 hours ago, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have increased slightly. The initial advisory intensity has been increased to 70 kt, and this could be a little conservative. There are strong low-level easterlies associated with a baroclinic zone and frontal boundary located a couple hundred miles north of Pablo. The hurricane is expected to begin interacting with this zone soon, which combined with even cooler waters should make the cyclone lose its tropical characteristics within the next 24 hours. The system is then expected to become absorbed by the circulation of a much larger low as it approaches from the west in a couple of days. The initial motion is now 020/20 kt. There is significant spread in the model guidance beyond 24 hours, as the ECMWF and UKMET turn the post-tropical cyclone to the northeast, while the remainder of the guidance turns it northwest. The official forecast follows the majority of the guidance and the previous forecast. In this scenario, Pablo is expected to turn northward and slow its forward motion tonight as it approaches the frontal zone. Then, a turn toward the northwest on Monday is expected as the larger low to its west begins to steer the cyclone. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 44.7N 17.2W 70 KT 80 MPH 12H 28/0600Z 46.5N 16.8W 60 KT 70 MPH 24H 28/1800Z 47.7N 17.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 29/0600Z 49.0N 18.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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