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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-10-13 10:48:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 130848 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 Although Dvorak satellite intensity estimates have not changed, recent imagery indicates that the center is more involved with the deep convection than it was earlier, suggesting that at least some strengthening has taken place. Moreover, an excellent ASCAT-B scatterometer pass from around 0500 UTC showed a couple of 53 to 54 kt wind vectors, which is likely an undersampling of the peak intensity. On this basis, the estimated intensity of Pamela is increased slightly to 65 kt, so the system is once again a hurricane. Since the tropical cyclone is close to landfall and the upper-level winds are not conducive for much more strengthening, little change in intensity is likely until the center crosses the coast. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland, and the official forecast may be a little on the high side given the mountainous terrain that the system will traverse. Center fixes from geostationary imagery and the scatterometer indicate that Pamela is now moving faster toward the northeast, or at about 045/12 kt. Additional acceleration is expected during the next 12 to 24 hours while the cyclone is embedded in the deep-layer southwesterly flow between a ridge over the western Gulf of Mexico and a broad trough over the west-central United States. The official forecast track has been shifted a little to the southeast of the previous one, but still moves Pamela across the coast of Mexico withing the Hurricane Warning area this morning. Later today and tonight, the rapidly weakening cyclone should move over central and northern Mexico. By 36 hours, the global models show the system losing its identity. The official forecast track is close to the simple and corrected consensus model solutions. Although Pamela is likely to dissipate over the rugged terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States later today or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to make landfall on the west-central coast of Mexico this morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to continue to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durango today. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 3. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma later today or Thursday. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 22.8N 107.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 24.5N 105.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 24H 14/0600Z 27.4N 101.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 36H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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