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Hurricane Pamela Forecast Discussion Number 9
2021-10-12 10:34:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 003 WTPZ41 KNHC 120834 TCDEP1 Hurricane Pamela Discussion Number 9 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Tue Oct 12 2021 After being relatively steady in strength for the past 12 hours or so, satellite images indicate that Pamela has resumed intensifying. A large area of deep convection has developed during the past several hours, and the center is estimated to be located near the middle of the convective mass. The Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB have both increased to 4.0/65 kt, and therefore, Pamela has now been upgraded to a 65-kt hurricane. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to fly into the storm later this morning and early afternoon to provide a better assessment of Pamela's structure, intensity, and wind field. Pamela has made the expected turn to the north, with the latest initial motion estimated to be 360/10 kt. The system is now on the western periphery of the ridge, which should cause it to continue moving northward today. However, by tonight, Pamela is forecast to become embedded in the flow on the south side of a broad mid- to upper-level trough, and that feature should cause the hurricane to move faster to the northeast toward the coast of west-central Mexico. After the storm moves inland early Wednesday, Pamela, or its remnants should accelerate northeastward across central and northern Mexico by the end of the week. The NHC track forecast is similar to the previous one and near the middle of the guidance envelope. Even though Pamela has not strengthened as quickly as thought up to this point, the overall intensity forecast philosophy has not changed much. The storm is expected to be in generally favorable conditions to gain strength until it reaches the coast of Mexico in 24 to 36 hours. Therefore, the NHC forecast continues to predict steady to rapid strengthening, and Pamela is likely to be near major hurricane intensity when it makes landfall. After landfall, Pamela is expected to rapidly decay due to the rugged terrain of Mexico, and it should ultimately dissipate over northern Mexico in 2 to 3 days. The NHC intensity forecast lies at the high end of the model guidance. Although the cyclone is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico, deep moisture associated with the system's remnants are likely to spread over north-central and northeastern Mexico on Wednesday, and then move into portions of the south-central United States late Wednesday or Thursday. Key Messages: 1. Pamela is forecast to be near major hurricane intensity when it reaches the west-central coast of Mexico on Wednesday morning, and life-threatening storm surge and dangerous hurricane-force winds are expected within the Hurricane Warning area. Residents in this area should follow any advice given by local officials. 2. Pamela is expected to pass south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula as a hurricane later today an tonight, and tropical-storm conditions are possible within the Tropical storm Watch area. 3. Heavy rains associated with Pamela are expected to move into the Mexican States of Sinaloa and western Durgano along with southern portions of Baja California Sur later today and Wednesday. This will pose a threat of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. 4. Heavy rains associated with the remnants of Pamela are expected across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma late Wednesday and Thursday. This may result in flash and urban flooding. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 19.2N 108.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 20.5N 108.8W 75 KT 85 MPH 24H 13/0600Z 22.4N 107.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 13/1800Z 25.1N 105.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND 48H 14/0600Z 28.4N 101.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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