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Hurricane Pamela Public Advisory Number 13
2021-10-13 10:46:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 130846 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Hurricane Pamela Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP162021 300 AM MDT Wed Oct 13 2021 ...PAMELA REGAINS HURRICANE STRENGTH WHILE ITS CENTER NEARS THE COAST... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.8N 107.6W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM WSW OF MAZATLAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Bahia Tempehuaya to Escuinapa A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * North of Bahia Tempehuaya to Altata * South of Escuinapa to Cabo Corrientes * Islas Marias A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 12 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Pamela was located near latitude 22.8 North, longitude 107.6 West. Pamela is moving toward the northeast near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster northeastward motion is expected later today. On the forecast track, the center of Pamela will make landfall in west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area later this morning and move inland over western Mexico later today. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected until Pamela reaches the coast of west-central Mexico this morning. Rapid weakening will occur after the center moves inland. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). A wind gust of 59 mph (94 km/h) was observed at Isla Maria Madre, Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb (29.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Pamela can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP1 and WMO header WTPZ41 KNHC, and on the web at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep1.shtml?key_messages. STORM SURGE: Storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds near where the center of Pamela makes landfall in southwestern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the Hurricane Warning area in a couple of hours, with tropical storm conditions continuing to spread over portions of the coast. RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Pamela or its remnant is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Across the Mexican States of Sinaloa, western Durango, and northern Nayarit...4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches. This rainfall may trigger significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Across portions of central Texas and southeastern Oklahoma...3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This may result in considerable flash and urban flooding impacts. SURF: Swells generated by Pamela will continue to affect portions of the southern Baja California peninsula, as well as southwestern and west-central mainland Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 600 AM MDT. Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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