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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-06 09:53:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 08:53:29 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 09:23:06 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 11
2024-11-06 09:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 060851 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 AM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 Rafael continues to intensify as it approaches western Cuba. Deep convection within the hurricane's Central Dense Overcast (CDO) is very intense, with cloud tops colder than -80 deg C. There are also strong convective banding features surrounding the CDO. Observations from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate a closed eyewall at times, with the central pressure falling at a rate of around 2 mb per hour. Based on the highest flight-level winds reported from the aircraft so far, the current intensity is set at 80 kt for this advisory. Rafael's inner core is relatively small in size, with hurricane-force winds extending about 25 n mi from its 10-15 n mi wide eye. The hurricane continues its northwestward trek, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 315/12 kt. For the next day or two, Rafael should continue to move along the southwestern side of a mid-level high pressure system and move over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico through Thursday night. After 48 hours the track guidance becomes very divergent, with a number of model solutions taking the system toward the southwest Gulf in 3-4 days. It appears that, during the latter part of the forecast period, a mid-level ridge could build to the north of the tropical cyclone. This could force Rafael to turn to the west or south of west in 4 to 5 days. In order to maintain continuity from the previous NHC predictions, the official track forecast is shifted to the left of the previous one, but not as far as dictated by the latest model consensus. If future model runs continue to show this trend, however, additional leftward adjustment to the NHC track may be required. Rafael is expected remain in an environment of high oceanic heat content, low vertical wind shear and a very moist low- to mid-tropospheric air mass until the center reaches western Cuba. Therefore, the cyclone will probably be nearing major hurricane status at landfall in Cuba. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, the environment should become increasingly less conducive for Rafael to maintain its intensity. Increasing southwesterly shear, significantly drier air, and gradually decreasing SSTs are likely to result in weakening. The official forecast remains near the high end of the model guidance in the 3- to 5-day forecast period. This is similar to the previous NHC intensity forecast. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is expected to strengthen to near major hurricane intensity before reaches western Cuba and the Isle of Youth today. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where damaging hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge, and destructive waves are also expected. 2. Tropical storm conditions are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning today and tonight. 3. It is too soon to determine what, if any, impacts Rafael could bring to portions of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor updates to the forecast. 4. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain across portions of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans along with western Cuba. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected along the higher terrain in western Cuba. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 20.6N 81.3W 80 KT 90 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 22.0N 82.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 23.6N 84.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 24.3N 85.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 24.6N 87.2W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 24.9N 88.5W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 25.2N 89.8W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 26.3N 91.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 27.0N 92.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Pasch
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2024-11-06 09:51:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 000 FONT13 KNHC 060851 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0900 UTC WED NOV 06 2024 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 80 KTS...90 MPH...150 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT FT LAUDERDALE 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MARATHON FL 34 1 4( 5) 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) KEY WEST FL 34 2 13(15) 3(18) 2(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) NAPLES FL 34 1 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) FT MYERS FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) X( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) TAMPA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 7(13) 2(15) X(15) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 17(27) 3(30) 1(31) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) HOUMA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 16(20) 8(28) 1(29) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 9(19) 4(23) GFMX 280N 930W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) HOUSTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) FREEPORT TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 3(13) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) COZUMEL MX 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) 4(10) X(10) X(10) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 1 8( 9) 7(16) 3(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) HAVANA 34 64 24(88) 1(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) X(89) HAVANA 50 7 22(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) 1(30) X(30) HAVANA 64 3 14(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLE OF PINES 34 95 X(95) 1(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) ISLE OF PINES 50 62 2(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) X(64) ISLE OF PINES 64 22 3(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CIENFUEGOS 34 17 1(18) 1(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) X(19) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Category: Transportation and Logistics