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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-08 03:54:38| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 08 Nov 2024 02:54:38 GMT
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 18
2024-11-08 03:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 080253 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 900 PM CST Thu Nov 07 2024 Satellite imagery this evening shows that Rafael has become better organized, with the eye becoming more distinct and the cloud tops in the eyewall getting colder. However, reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that this has not yet resulted in strengthening. The central pressure is near 965 mb, and a combination of 700-mb flight level winds and dropsonde data supports an initial intensity of 90 kt. Interestingly, this is at the lower end of the various subjective and objective satellite intensity estimates. The initial motion is now 280/8 kt, and a general westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next 48 h or so as Rafael is steered by a building ridge to its north. After that, the track guidance is still quite divergent. The Canadian, NAVGEM, and COAMPS-TC models call for the cyclone to turn northward or northeastward toward the northern Gulf coast as it gets affected by the large deep-layer trough over the southwestern United States. The GFS, which previously supported this scenario, is now calling for a slow anticyclonic loop over the central Gulf of Mexico, and this is also the forecast of the GFS and UKMET ensemble means. The ECMWF, deterministic UKMET, and the GFS-based regional hurricane models still show a turn toward the southwest and south as a narrow ridge builds between the hurricane and the aforementioned trough. To add to the uncertainty, the GFS and ECWMF ensembles still have numerous tracks supporting both the northward and southward turns. Based on the continued guidance spread and continuity from the previous forecast, the new track forecast continues to lean toward the southward scenario, although the new track is a little slower than the previous track to match the overall slower set of guidance. Rafael is currently in an area of light vertical wind shear, and the hurricane is crossing a warm eddy in the Loop Current. This combination should at least maintain the current intensity for the next 12-24 h, and slight strengthening cannot be ruled out. After that, westerly shear is forecast to increase, and while the shear is not likely to be strong it should help advect very dry air into the circulation. This should cause Rafael to steadily weaken, and the intensity forecast has been adjusted to show an increased weakening rate between 24-60 h to better fit the trend of the guidance. The intensity forecast generally follows the faster weakening rate of the global and GFS-based regional hurricane models, as the statistical-dynamical models have a slower rate of weakening. It should be noted that if Rafael turns northward, it would move over cooler sea surface temperatures and encounter stronger shear, which would likely cause a faster weakening than currently forecast. Key Messages: 1. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days. 2. Rafael is forecast to move slowly over the central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 24.6N 87.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 24.7N 88.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 24.8N 89.9W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 25.1N 91.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 25.2N 91.9W 60 KT 70 MPH 60H 10/1200Z 25.3N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 24.9N 92.7W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 23.7N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 22.0N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH $$ Forecaster Beven
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Wind Speed Probabilities Number 18
2024-11-08 03:53:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 624 FONT13 KNHC 080253 PWSAT3 HURRICANE RAFAEL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182024 0300 UTC FRI NOV 08 2024 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE RAFAEL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 87.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 90 KTS...105 MPH...165 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 1 3( 4) 4( 8) 3(11) 2(13) X(13) 1(14) HOUMA LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 910W 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 5(16) 4(20) 1(21) X(21) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 5(12) 5(17) 1(18) X(18) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) GFMX 280N 950W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) MATAGORDA TX 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) PORT O CONNOR 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) GFMX 270N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 4(10) 1(11) X(11) GFMX 250N 960W 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 6(12) 2(14) 1(15) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
Category: Transportation and Logistics