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Hurricane Rafael Update Statement
2024-11-06 23:56:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT63 KNHC 062255 TCUAT3 Hurricane Rafael Tropical Cyclone Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 600 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 ...CENTER OF RAFAEL ON THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA... ...6 PM EST POSITION UPDATE... The Havana International Airport recently reported a wind gust of 67 mph...108 km/h. The next update will be provided in the intermediate advisory at 7 PM EST...0000 UTC. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.0N 83.0W ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF BAHIA HONDA CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...170 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...962 MB...28.41 INCHES $$ Forecaster Beven
Category:Transportation and Logistics
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Hurricane Rafael Graphics
2024-11-06 21:51:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:50 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 06 Nov 2024 20:51:52 GMT
Category: Transportation and Logistics
Hurricane Rafael Forecast Discussion Number 13
2024-11-06 21:49:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 000 WTNT43 KNHC 062049 TCDAT3 Hurricane Rafael Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL182024 400 PM EST Wed Nov 06 2024 The radar and satellite presentation of Rafael continued to improve after the release of the previous advisory with the eye becoming quite distinct around midday in geostationary satellite imagery. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was able to fly a couple of passes through the center earlier this afternoon and measured a peak flight-level wind of 104 kt and an extrapolated minimum pressure of 956 mb. The aircraft was unable to sample the northeastern quadrant where the maximum winds were likely located. Therefore, the initial intensity was increased to 100 kt on the 1800 UTC intermediate advisory. The 100-kt initial intensity is supported by a blend of the various UW/CIMSS objective Dvorak estimates, and UW/CIMSS SATCON which peaked near that value. Over the past few hours it appears that an eyewall replacement cycle is underway as the eye has become less distinct in satellite imagery, and radar data has shown the erosion of the smaller inner-eyewall. With the eyewall replacement ongoing, little additional change in strength is expected before Rafael makes landfall in western Cuba within the next hour or so. Some weakening is expected as the storm crosses Cuba, but Rafael is likely to remain a hurricane over the southeastern and southern Gulf of Mexico during the next few days. After that time, increasing southwesterly shear and significantly drier air are likely to result in weakening. As noted earlier, there are some models that take Rafael southwestward late in the period over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico where environmental conditions could be less hostile. If additional southward adjustments to the track forecast are needed on subsequent advisories, it is likely that some modest upward adjustments to the longer-range intensity may also be required. The initial motion estimate is northwestward or 320/11 kt. Rafael is expected to continue to move around the southwestern side of a mid-level ridge over the southwestern Atlantic during the next day or so. After that time, the ridge is forecast to build westward over the eastern Gulf of Mexico which should cause Rafael to turn more westward over the southern Gulf of Mexico. By 72 hours, the spread in the track guidance increases once again, with the GFS showing a more northward solution than most of the remainder of the track guidance. The NHC track forecast has been shifted southward once again to be in better agreement with the various consensus aids. It is possible that future southward and southwestward adjustment will be needed as several of the models now show the cyclone moving west-southwestward over the southwestern Gulf by the end of the period. Key Messages: 1. Rafael is forecast to cross western Cuba as a major hurricane this afternoon and evening. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a life-threatening storm surge, damaging hurricane-force winds, and destructive waves are expected. 2. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are expected in the Lower and Middle Florida Keys beginning later today and tonight. 3. Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to the Cayman Islands and western Cuba through Thursday. Flash flooding and mudslides are expected in areas of higher terrain in western Cuba. 4. Rafael is forecast to meander over the south-central Gulf of Mexico this weekend and early next week. Interests in the southern and southwestern Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 22.6N 82.7W 100 KT 115 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 23.6N 83.9W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 24.1N 85.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 24.2N 87.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 24.2N 89.1W 85 KT 100 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 24.3N 90.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 24.5N 91.1W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 24.6N 92.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 24.5N 93.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
Category: Transportation and Logistics