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Hurricane Rosa Forecast Discussion Number 8
2018-09-27 04:35:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 884 WTPZ45 KNHC 270235 TCDEP5 Hurricane Rosa Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP202018 900 PM MDT Wed Sep 26 2018 During the past several hours, the convective pattern of Rosa has become more symmetric, and perhaps an eye is trying to emerge in the last few satellite images. Overall, Rosa appears somewhat stronger than the past advisory, so the initial wind speed is slightly raised to 75 kt- near the TAFB Dvorak estimate and the CIMSS ADT. The hurricane has been steadily strengthening over the past day, and, with conducive atmospheric and oceanic conditions in the forecast for the next couple of days, this trend should continue. A more rapid intensification period is possible if the inner core becomes better defined. Curiously, the intensity guidance has come in lower than the last cycle, despite no obvious inhibiting factors from all of the global models. I'd rather keep the high forecast of my predecessor until the reasons for this lower peak intensity become clear. In addition, the corrected-consensus guidance is higher than the rest of the aids, supporting the stronger forecast. By day 3 weakening should commence as Rosa moves over cooler waters, and rapid weakening is possible by the end of the forecast while the cyclone encounters high shear over quite cool waters. Rosa has turned westward, now moving at about 10 kt. A mid-level high over the southwestern United States should steer the hurricane on this general course for the next day or so. After that time, the high shifts eastward due to a series of troughs approaching the west coast of the United States, causing Rosa to gradually turn toward the northwest by Friday, north on Saturday and to the northeast by Monday. There are still some pretty large speed differences in the models at long range, with the GFS-based guidance a lot faster than the ECMWF or UKMET models and their ensembles. There are no obvious reasons to favor either solution at this time, so the track forecast will stay close to the dynamical model consensus and the previous forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/0300Z 16.9N 113.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 12H 27/1200Z 17.0N 114.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 28/0000Z 17.1N 116.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 36H 28/1200Z 17.6N 117.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 29/0000Z 18.4N 118.2W 110 KT 125 MPH 72H 30/0000Z 21.2N 119.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 01/0000Z 24.6N 118.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 02/0000Z 28.0N 116.0W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake
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